One of the most likely and most devastating natural
disasters that could affect the world on an apocalyptic scale is the eruption
of the Yellowstone Super Volcano. According to the National Park Service Public
Use Statistics Office over 278,900,000 people visited the state park in 2011.
If an eruption were to happen it would likely instantly kill everyone within a
100 mile radius and, within days, cover the majority of the United States in
ash.
Yet many people are unaware that the threat even exists.
Typically, when we think of volcanoes, we think of large, cone-shaped
mountains. Super Volcanoes are different. According to Wikipedia, a Super
Volcano is capable of producing a volcanic eruption with an ejecta greater than
1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles). This is thousands of times larger
than most historic volcanic eruptions such as Vesuvius or Mount St. Helens.
Super Volcanoes occur when magma rises into the crust from a hotspot but is
unable to break through. Pressure builds in the massive magma pool (for the
example of Yellowstone, the pool of lava is between 5-15 miles below ground and
approximately 45x35 miles across) until the crust is unable to contain the
pressure. The most noticeable difference is the lack of the iconic cone shape.
Super Volcanoes are so large that they don’t even appear to be a mountain. The
explosions are so powerful that they
often form circular calderas rather than cones because the ground literally collapses into the magma
chamber. The caldera at Yellowstone is 35 miles wide by 45 miles long, one of
the most massive calderas in existence.
We know that Yellowstone has the potential for massive eruption
because this has happened at least three times in the past. One at 2.1 million
years ago, one at 1.3 million years ago, and the latest at 640,000 years ago, a
rate of roughly one explosion every 700,000 years. Which means, it’s due for
another any time now.
The eruption itself will be a powerful event. The violence
of the explosion will send molten rock and ash rocketing into the atmosphere up
to 30 miles high. While the initial deaths will be caused by the explosion
itself and magma raining from the air, the death count will rise much higher in
the days to follow.
An ash cloud will cover the majority of North America,
depending on the wind currents. This ash will mix with precipitation in the air
creating a cement-like substance and for days, possibly weeks, this mixture
will rain down across the continent. The weight of this ash rain will cause
building, bridges, and other vital infrastructure to collapse. And still the
worst is yet to come.
According to Alan Robock, an Environmental Scientist at
Rutgers University, “Sulpher gases that go into the stratosphere will react
with the water and form little droplets of sulfuric acid and this sulfuric haze
lasts for a couple of years and that’s what blocks out the sun and cools the
earth.” This blanketing of the earth will block sunlight for several years
causing temperatures to plummet and the world will enter what is known as a “Volcanic
Winter.” This would change the face of the earth forever. Desserts would become
snow blown tundras. Rainforest would wither and die as temperatures drop. And
worst of all, the entire modern agriculture industry would be destroyed.
Without sunlight, crops will die. This would cause livestock
to perish and people to starve. Massive famine would sweep the world and where
there is famine, war and disease will follow. This is a link I will talk about
many times because they are so innately connected. Whenever people are starving
there will be a mass migration. This migration could be friendly but usually
the onslaught of massive amounts of refugees causes socio-political instability
and war erupts. Anytime, either through war or famine, that enormous numbers of
people move to new locations, disease follows in their wake.
These are likely the reasons that when the last Super
Volcano eruption happened 75,000 years ago, approximately 90% of the human population
at that time perished. That is more than the Black Plague, smallpox or any war
in history. In today's terms, that number would rise to over 5.5 million people dead.
Can we predict when it will explode? No. Even volcanologists
fail to accurately predict volcanic eruptions but there is at least one sign we
can watch for. Earthquakes. Earthquakes are one signifier that large amounts of molten rock are moving upwards. Last year,
scientists at Yellowstone recorded over 3,000 earthquakes and an increase in
elevation by 10 inches. These are both signs that the underground pressure is
building. The Federal government has made it easy for average citizens to monitor
the earthquakes in Yellowstone. This website gives you access to 26 seismic
stations that give live measurements from within the park.
How can we prepare? There is almost no way to fully prepare
for an event of this magnitude. The best way, if you are outside the initial
100 mile radius, would be to maintain an available food supply (generally at
least one year’s worth of food) and have all the tools available for combating
the ash-rain and possibly rebuilding/replanting as soon as possible. If you are
within that radius the only preparation would be to leave. Even with the most
massive precautions, it is unlikely that anyone could be truly prepared.
If you have any comments or questions about this or other apocalyptic
events, feel free to leave a message either here on my blog or email me at
gfmwagner@gmail.com
